Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell addresses the media after an NFL football game against the Baltimore Ravens, Sunday, Oct. 22, 2023, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
ESPN Report: Sad News Just Now Lions Best Player In Eager To Move Immediately….
There are just four teams left in the NFL playoffs, and this Sunday’s conference championship games will decide which two will go to Super Bowl LVIII. First up, the Chiefs go on the road to play the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, setting up Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson. Then the Lions look to continue their run in the NFC Championship Game against the 49ers. There’s a lot on the line, and we mapped out how all four teams can win and advance.
We dug into the tape to pick out keys to victory — one offensive and one defensive — and build out game-plan blueprints for every team. Based on what I’ve seen on tape and with some help from the numbers, we can get a better feel for how coaching staffs will scheme for personnel, game situation and coverage. We also picked out an X factor player who could play a big part for each of the four franchises. Here are the game-plan keys for both games, along with ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projections and ESPN BET lines for each matchup.
The Ravens have the most fundamentally sound defense I’ve watched on tape this season. That unit allowed only 74 completions of 15 or more yards during the regular season, the fifth fewest in the league. That said, the Chiefs can use their staple route concepts to create opportunities outside the numbers against Baltimore’s single-high and split-safety coverages, with tight end Travis Kelce as the top target for Mahomes. Here, the Chiefs can influence the cornerbacks when Baltimore spins late to play Cover 2.
I’d like to see Kelce breaking to a depth of 15 yards on the corner route there. That’s the boundary window in front of the safety. And when the Ravens are in single-high, it’s the three-level flood and sail concepts that could help the Chiefs move the chains. Those should create a void for Kelce to run the outside breaking route or drag him across the field on a deep crosser. Kelce caught three passes for 57 yards and a touchdown on throws outside the numbers in the divisional round win over Buffalo, and those concepts can be deployed again on Sunday in Baltimore, with multiple personnel and alignments to break formation tendencies.
Inside the numbers, the Chiefs were 24th in yards per pass attempt (7.0) and 22nd in completion percentage (68.8%) this season. Outside the numbers, they were much better, ranking 15th in yards per attempt (7.4) and third in completion rate (69.3%).
Dial up Cover 0 pressure
During the regular season, the Chiefs blitzed at a rate of 32.8%, the fourth highest in the league. And they played Cover 0 — blitz with no safety help — on 42 snaps, the most in the NFL. This a foundational piece of Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, and it can give the Chiefs an edge against Jackson and the Ravens’ offense.
The goal here is to force Baltimore to define its routes quicker against pressure and limit Jackson’s ability to find open rush lanes on scramble attempts. Including last week’s playoff win over Houston, Jackson has rushed for 489 yards on scramble attempts this season, with 16 carries of 10 or more yards. He is one of the league’s best at identifying daylight in the pocket. Kansas City has to take that away as much as it can, especially in critical situations like third down and in the red zone.
Valdez-Scantling had only five receptions of 20 or more yards and dropped four passes during the regular season. But in the divisional round, he had two catches of 30 or more yards, which played a key role in the Chiefs’ win. He’s a vertical stretch target with the ability to stack on man coverage or isolate against a Ravens safety downfield. Mahomes will need to make those third-level throws.
