Houston Texans Listed as Favorites to Land Bucs WR Mike Evans

Every Houston Texan fan that pays attention to NFL free agency (and my advice is to DEFINITELY pay attention to it this year) has their own shopping list, with a pecking order or priority “purchases” during the red hot early phase of free agency. When you add up the rise of C.J. Stroud with simple geography, it’s easy to see why many Texans fans out there would like to see the team make a run at Tampa Bay wide receiver, and Galveston native, Mike Evans.

Evans has been the model of consistency throughout what is a likely Hall of Fame career, having played a full decade in Tampa Bay and never played fewer than 13 games in a season and never gained fewer than 1,000 yards receiving in a season. You could argue that his most recent season, at age 30, was his best, with 1,255 yards receiving and a league leading 13 touchdown catches.

Understandably, as the greatest receiver in the franchise’s history, Tampa Bay would like to hang onto Evans, but to this point, the two sides have been unable to arrive at a deal. On Monday afternoon, Dianna Russini of The Athletic provided this update on the status of talks between Evans and the team:

So, in short, free agency looks highly likely for Evans, and when any scenario involving several possible outcomes becomes a thing, we must be allowed to wager on it! So, here are the first round of odds, post-Russini tweet, on where Evans could end up:

So this raises a few questions. Let’s explore:

What would a Mike Evans deal look like?
Evans will be 31 years old in August, so while his production puts him among the top receivers in the league, age will probably keep his price from scraping the top of the market. Right now, $20 million per year puts a receiver hovering around the top ten in average salary at the position. I think this is probably about Evans’ range. I could see the price of poker for Evans being something in the four year, $80 million range, with about $50 million to $60 million guaranteed. If this happened, it would likely be the biggest free agency splurge for the Texans this offseason, and would also signal they think they can win a Super Bowl now.

What would a Mike Evans deal mean for Nico Collins’ future?
This is an interesting question, as Collins and Evans had very similar statistical seasons in 2023. Collins had slightly more yards, more yards per catch, while Evans had more touchdowns. Stylistically and in physical stature, the two are very similar. Obviously, the big difference is Collins is younger and has had one great season. Collins is extension eligible this offseason, so giving him a massive raise would likely preclude signing Evans. The question is would signing Evans preclude extending Collins after the 2024 season? It might. The good news is, while C.J. Stroud is still in his rookie contract phase for a few more years, you can get a little greedy, especially if it’s while providing weapons for Stroud himself.

So, do we think it happens?
Ultimately, I think the Texans pass on Evans, focus on extending Collins (and eventually Tank Dell in a couple years), add some more complementary veteran receiver pieces (upgrades over Noah Brown and Robert Woods), and spend their money on defense. DeMeco Ryans has been adamant about building through the defensive line on defense, and the running game on offense. Both fo those areas are far bigger candidates for free agency spending than splurging on Mike Evans.