Braves Sign Reynaldo Lopez

On Monday morning, the Braves revealed that they had signed right-hander Reynaldo Lopez to a three-year deal worth $30 million. $4 million in 2024 and $11 million in 2025 and 2026 will be paid to the CAA client. For the 2027 campaign, there is an $8MM club option with a $4MM buyout.

After the season ended, the Braves have added Lopez as the fifth player to their bullpen mix. The other players are trade acquisitions Aaron Bummer and Jackson Kowar, and re-signed righties Joe Jimenez (three years, $26MM) and Pierce Johnson (two years, $14.25MM). It’s interesting to note, though, that the Braves will use Lopez’s preparation as a starting pitcher this winter, according to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Although the Braves don’t necessarily see Lopez in the rotation in 2024, they think he can succeed in either position and it’s naturally easier to go from starting to relieving than the other way around. Although Lopez’s exact position won’t be known until the spring, it’s noteworthy that he may get another opportunity to start for his new team.

Although Lopez, who turns 30 in January, has a ton of experience in both capacities, he hasn’t been very successful as a starter. He was once one of the best pitching prospects in the game. He was traded with Adam Eaton back to the Nationals in 2016 along with Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning. Despite having questionable peripherals, he pitched 188 innings at a 3.91 ERA for the White Sox in 32 starts in 2018. Overall, Lopez has a much rougher 4.73 ERA as a starter but a lifetime 3.01 ERA coming out of the bullpen.

After switching to the bullpen full-time, Lopez’s career really took off. He has flourished in this role for the last two seasons, though in slightly different ways. After a rocky start to the 22 season, the flamethrowing righty emerged as one of the league’s most dominant bullpen arms in the last four months, recording a 1.00 ERA, a 28.8% strikeout rate, and a 31.1 percent walk rate from early June to the end of the season. He finished the 2022 season with a stellar 2 point76 ERA, a walk rate of 4 points3 percent, and a strikeout rate that was marginally above average (24 points8 percent).

Lopez’s run prevention was once again excellent in 2023 (3.27 ERA), but he arrived at that result in a different way. Lopez struck out a season-high 29 points9 percent of his opponents with a fastball that was now averaging a scorching 98.4 mph, an increase of 1 point3 mph over the already impressive 97.1 mph from the previous season. Still, his walk rate of 12.2% was almost three times higher than the previous campaign. His curveball was all but abandoned, as evidenced by the mere 1.2 percent clip he threw it at (down from 7.2 percent in 2022).

With the exception of a rare changeup and curveball, Lopez’s 2023 form was essentially a two-pitch pitcher, utilizing a blistering fastball and a hard slider. However, he has had seasons in which he has thrown both his change and his hook at a 20 percent clip or above, proving that he has a varied enough repertoire to be successful as a starter — provided the Braves can get better and more reliable performance out of his secondary offerings. It makes sense that Lopez’s fastball velocity would slightly decrease in a starting role, but he would still have above-average heat.

It’s probable that Lopez’s final 2024 usage will depend in

part on how long Atlanta’s offseason lasts. Right now, Bryce Elder, Charlie Morton, Max Fried, and Spencer Strider are the Braves’ starting lineup. There will be competition for that fifth spot, probably from Lopez but also from righty Huascar Ynoa, southpaw Dylan Dodd, veteran Ian Anderson (who will be returning from Tommy John surgery), and top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver. The Braves have been connected to a number of notable free agents thus far. If they are successful in signing Sonny Gray or securing another experienced starter, Lopez will probably be pushed further into the bullpen.

Lopez will be a part of a hilariously deep group if he plays the more comfortable bullpen role. Apart from Jimenez, Johnson, and Bummer mentioned earlier, the Braves will also use Raisel Iglesias, A. A. J. Minter and Tyler Matzek in what is expected to be one of the Majors’ most skilled and seasoned groups of relief players.

According to projections from Roster Resource, Lopez’s $4MM salary for the 2024 season will bring the Braves’ payroll up to about $207MM. Since all luxury calculations are based on a deal’s average annual value, the contract still carries a much larger $10MM luxury-tax hit, even though its backloaded nature spares Atlanta some bottom-line payroll in the upcoming season.

The Braves are now well above this year’s $237MM luxury barrier at roughly $241.6MM in luxury considerations, thanks to the $10MM AAV on Lopez’s contract, which puts them squarely in luxury-tax territory. Their penalty levels will increase because they paid the luxury tax last season as well. They will now pay a 30 percent tax instead of a 20 percent dollar-for-dollar tax, with higher penalties if they exceed the threshold by more than $20 million in total. Additionally, as third-time payers will be subject to even higher tax rates starting in 2025, they will be subject to even harsher penalties.