NFL picks against the spread: Bills have a lot of urgency going into game vs. Eagles
The reason you can’t lose to teams like the New England Patriots is you’ll eventually have games against teams like the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Buffalo Bills have taken five losses this season and some of them are bad. The Bills are 6-5 with some difficult games coming up. Buffalo might be one of the seven best teams in the AFC but it is going to have to pull an upset or two to get enough wins to get in the field. That’s what happens when you drop five of your first 10 games.
The Bills aren’t in a must-win situation yet, but beating the Eagles on Sunday would be pretty big for them. The problem is the Eagles. They’re 9-1, the only team in the NFL with fewer than three losses. They aren’t going to lose very often this season.
Both teams are good, but also confusing in different ways. The Eagles aren’t blowing everyone out but they’re winning more often than any other team in the league. They’re not as impressive as you’d expect from a 9-1 team. Philadelphia is just 10th in DVOA, which is unusual for a team that has two fewer losses than any other team in the NFL. It seems like they’re barely getting by, but they are getting by. That’s more than you can say for anyone else in the league.
The Bills have lost five games but they’re still an analytics darling. They’re fifth in DVOA, which makes their five losses even more frustrating. Every one of their losses has been close, but that has been a pattern for the Bills the past few years. They have a surprisingly bad record in one-score games.
One stat should sum up the conflicting feelings about both teams: The Bills’ point differential this season is +104, while the Eagles lag behind at +61.
The Bills are a 3-point underdog at BetMGM and they’re the pick. As crazy as it sounds, there are some reasons to believe Buffalo is actually the better team. The Bills are certainly the more urgent team this week. The Bills need to make up for some bad losses. Maybe this week they’ll get one back.
Here are the picks for Week 12 with the odds from BetMGM (it was a 2-1 day for the Thanksgiving games):
Dolphins (-9.5) over Jets
It will be interesting to see how the Jets react to the quarterback change. We discussed the NFL’s first “Black Friday” game at length in The Daily Sweat.
Saints (-1.5) over Falcons
The Falcons are turning back to Desmond Ridder, but I’m not sure that makes much difference. The Saints are truly disappointing, but so is the entire NFC South. New Orleans is the better team, and I’ll reluctantly take them.
Steelers (-1.5) over Bengals
Is Jake Browning a viable option to replace Joe Burrow? That seems unlikely. It seems more likely that a change at offensive coordinator for the Steelers this week sparks something better for Pittsburgh’s awful offense. It’s not comfortable taking Pittsburgh and its challenges moving the ball, but I need to see what Browning is before trusting the Bengals.
Titans (-3.5) over Panthers
This matchup is not pretty. The Titans and Panthers are both just playing out the string. The Titans briefly had hope when Will Levis threw four touchdowns in his first start, but he has fallen off and so has Tennessee. They’re still better than the Panthers, who at least got one win and don’t have to start answering 0-17 questions. It’s just two bad teams, but I can’t back the Panthers.
Colts (-2.5) over Buccaneers
The Bucs have lost five of six, with the only win coming against that sliding Titans team we just talked about. The Colts have a pretty advantageous upcoming schedule and could be a surprise entry in the playoff race. They seem like the better team in this game, they’re at home and also coming off a bye. An easy pick.
Giants (+3.5) over Patriots
If Panthers at Titans isn’t the worst matchup on Sunday, this must be it. I don’t believe much in the Giants but we pick every game here and taking the points seems to be the right move. There must be something better to do on your Sunday than watch this game.
Jaguars (-1.5) over Texans
The first time these teams played, the Jaguars were run off the field in a 37-17 loss. Jacksonville won’t be surprised this time. The Texans are one of the NFL’s best stories, with rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud looking as good as any rookie quarterback we’ve ever seen. I still think the Jaguars are the better team, they were embarrassed in the first meeting and they win in a huge AFC South matchup.
Browns (+1.5) over Broncos
The Broncos are on a nice streak. Didn’t see that coming. But one remaining weakness is their run defense. Cleveland can run the ball and play defense, and that might be enough to win a pretty important game in the AFC playoff picture.
Cardinals (+1.5) over Rams
OK, there are some bad matchups this week. The Cardinals have looked better the last couple weeks since Kyler Murray returned, and it seems they’re still playing hard. The Rams are playing hard too, but someone has to win this game.
Raiders (+9) over Chiefs
The Raiders have been pretty good since Antonio Pierce took over, and I don’t think a competitive loss at the Dolphins will sidetrack them. It’s possible the Chiefs, coming off a Monday night loss to the Eagles, will take out some frustrations on the Raiders. But I’m fine backing a new-look Raiders team with all those points.
Ravens (-3.5) at Chargers
I don’t have any real reason to back the Chargers. They have lost a lot of receiving talent to injuries, and the Ravens have a very good pass defense. The Chargers’ defense is bad (sorry, Brandon Staley) and the Ravens should be able to move the ball. The Chargers have no real home-field advantage. Again, what’s the reason to take the Chargers?
Vikings (-3) over Bears
This line surprises me. The Vikings aren’t getting much respect here. They’ve still yet to lose a game by more than seven points. Justin Fields can make plays, but the Bears are still 1-6 in his starts this season. Often it’s good to be a contrarian bettor. This seems like a game in which the obvious side seems obvious for a reason.
