hould Atlanta really be spending significant money to replace……

Monday Mailbag: Should Atlanta really be spending significant money to replace Eddie Rosario anyway?

Here’s the thing for me: He costs $9M for 2024, which isn’t bad for a known quantity. When healthy, Eddie’s going to bat somewhere in the .250-.260 ballpark with 15-20 homers, playing okay defense in left field. With the current economics of baseball, it’s hard to replace that on the free agent market without paying significant more than you’re paying now.

I’d rather extend Eddie and find him a new part-time platoon partner, prioritizing the money for another starting pitcher who can take the ball in a playoff game.

You’ve written about the Braves bullpen losing a lot of arms; should Atlanta bring back Kirby Yates? – Chad

This is the only option I’m waffling on at the moment – to me, Morton (assuming he wants to return) and Rosario are a yes, McHugh and Hand are no’s.

Kirby’s option is for $5.75M, with a buyout of $1.25M.

The question is this: Can the difference between those two figures, $4.5M, get Atlanta a better reliever than Kirby Yates on the free agent market? If it can, you decline the option. If it can’t, you pick it up.

Yates was 7-2 with a 3.28 ERA in 61 appearances this season, striking out 80 in his 60.1 innings and going 5/8 in save situations. He often worked in medium-leverage situations, holding opposing batters to a .083/.185/.146 slash line with six walks to eighteen strikeouts in those 55 at-bats.

He also stepped up as the “alternate closer” – working in save situations when the core back-of-bullpen group was unavailable due to workload.

Honestly, I’m fine bringing him back. Veteran bullpen arms are always desired in free agency, by both contenders and non-contenders alike, and I’m reluctant to think Atlanta will easily be able to identify someone that’s markedly better for that price. (Bringing back Jesse Chavez at league minimum, should he want to pitch in 2024, would also help save some money and cover some innings.)

But at the same time, pitching contracts are weird when you get into reliever territory, and it’s entirely possible to unearth gems (like Atlanta did with the Pierce Johnson trade).

Who’s a realistic starting pitcher for Atlanta to sign in free agency? – Zack

Probably someone in the 2nd or 3rd tier of starters.

(For context, using our free agent rankings, Tier 1 would be Shohei/Yamamoto/Snell/Nola, with Tier 2 being Eduardo Rodriguez/Sonny Gray/Jordan Montgomery).

I expect Atlanta to either bring back Charlie Morton and sign one, or sign two if Morton chooses to hang them up. That’s the whole point of saving money with the other decisions – left field, or reliever – is to have money for free agent pitching.

You need a postseason starter. And you’ll probably have to break the self-imposed $22M/year ceiling to bring someone in, even with avoiding that top group of priciest options on the market, because market value on those arms will end up breaking $22M and probably settling closer to $25M on a multi-year deal, even without wading in the deep end.

Which leads me to this question:

You’ve said before that it’s unlikely that Max Fried re-signs in Atlanta next season. What has to change to make him come back? – David

David’s right – I wrote THIS back in August about the likelihood of Fried walking next offseason.

I still think it’s likely he walks, with one rather large caveat:

What Atlanta spends in free agency on a starting pitcher.

One of the big observations in that piece is that no one Atlanta’s signed so far has exceeded $22M/year AAV. If this starting pitcher we’re expecting to see in free agency is making more than that (and Morton’s $20M falls off the books either for 2024 or 2025), there’s still a possibility that Atlanta can get into the ballpark for Fried. Whether or not he’ll take a discount, I don’t know, but at least it’s more likely Atlanta can come relatively close to matching the money.