November 21, 2024

Five Giants with the most to prove over the final five games

The stakes are high for these players, but for different reasons

New England Patriots v New York Giants

The New York Giants’ bye week came late this year, but the good thing is that it arrives close enough to the end of the season for obvious questions to have arisen about the roster yet with enough games remaining to get some answers. Yes, the Giants are still mathematically in the hunt for a playoff spot, and yes, one delusional writer even predicted they’d get there. One brain cramp by Tyrod Taylor and one missed field goal by an injured Graham Gano later, though, the intrigue for the rest of the season largely revolves around individual players and the Giants’ eventual draft position.

Who will be a Giant in 2024 and who will not? Let’s think about which players have the most to gain or lose in these final five games. It’s a complicated question to answer, because it depends not only on a given player’s performance, but also his potential, his health, and his contract situation.

Tommy DeVito

The Giants’ quarterback situation will obviously be the biggest question mark heading into 2024. After Daniel Jones’ breakout 2022 campaign, things fell apart this season, and the only reason Jones is not on this list is because he will not play again in 2023. Given his contract structure, he will certainly be a Giant in 2024. You have to guess that Tyrod Taylor will not be back because of his age and cost unless the Giants do not select a quarterback in the next NFL Draft.

Right now the biggest question, against all odds, is Tommy DeVito. DeVito looked every bit the undrafted free agent developmental project when he was forced into action against the Jets, and he wasn’t that much better even with a week to prepare in Las Vegas and Dallas. Then he broke out in Washington and followed it up with a pretty good performance against New England.

Brian Daboll hasn’t named his starter for the Giants’ next game against Green Bay. Taylor will be off IR by then, and I had assumed that he would return as the starter. DeVito’s play the past two games has changed my mind. Suddenly, the question is, how good can he be? Rather than being locked in for QB3 for 2024, it’s now legitimate to ask whether DeVito can be QB2. Heck, given the Brock Purdy story, it’s not even outrageous to suggest that he could become QB1 at some point.

DeVito ranks second in Pro Football Focus passing grade among the 2023 draft class QBs with at least 100 dropbacks:

He has taken shots downfield (and succeeded) where Jones would check down, he has hung in or moved around in the pocket while Jones would bail, and he was throwing with better anticipation than Jones. But the two of them have not played behind the same offensive line (or against the same caliber of opponent). Here is a reminder of just how bad the Giants’ offensive line has been this year:

We can track the evolution of the Giants’ line over the season by looking at how badly they have performed for the Giants’ three quarterbacks, since conveniently, their game action only barely overlaps in time. Here is pressure rate vs. time to pressure:

These metrics are not QB-independent, since different quarterbacks read defenses and avoid pressure to different extents. We can say that (1) no one has been pressured more this season than Jones; (2) you can just about draw a straight line through the three Giants’ QBs, so improvement of the OL over the course of the season might be the best explanation. I don’t have a number, but it seems that the free rushers that were rampant in the early games against Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, and Miami have largely disappeared. According to @Doug_Analytics, Jones was pressured within 1.8 seconds on 5.7% of his dropbacks, the most of any quarterback this season. That can’t all be failure to go to a hot read.

A better metric is the Giants’ PFF pass blocking grade for each game:

PFF analysts try to isolate each player’s performance from the players around them. The average pass block grade for Jones (games 1-5) was 38.9, for Taylor (games 5-8) it was 40.8, and for DeVito (games 8-12) it was 55.3. DeVito’s best two performances coincide with the best pass protection he has seen, and were two of the Giants’ only three games with at least adequate pass blocking (the third, in Week 2, was Jones’ best game). The offensive line has clearly gotten better. Whatever the reason, DeVito is working behind a line that is giving him a chance to succeed. That means he can get a fair evaluation these next five games.

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