Long-Term Contracts Propel The Atlanta Braves, But Hinder The New York Yankees
The Braves completed a three-game sweep of the Yankees on Wednesday, outscoring the visitors 18-3 in the series. At 78-42, Atlanta boasts the best record in MLB. The Yankees are far from the worst team at 60-61, but they’re a distant cry from their customary perch among baseball’s elite. On March 29, FanGraphs gave them an 81.2% likelihood of reaching the playoffs. Today, they reside in last place with 2.4% playoff chances.
The matchup juxtaposed two franchises headed in opposite directions. Ironically, they share a common catalyst for their divergent predicaments: long-term deals. Not counting pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players, Atlanta has nine position players and three pitchers signed through at least 2025, almost all of whom are playing well and driving their success.
The Yankees have four position players and two pitchers under contract through 2025, including six of the seven highest-salaried individuals on the roster. However, most of them have fallen short of expectations, which has become a major narrative around their collapse.
Atlanta Braves Long-Term Contracts
Atlanta has all of their starting position players signed through at least 2025 except for their left fielder—including both of their catchers. Starter Sean Murphy, signed through 2029, leads all starting backstops in MLB with a .383 on-base percentage and .539 slugging percentage. Backup Travis d’Arnaud’s .452 slugging percentage is tenth among catchers with at least 200 plate appearances. He could easily have found more playing time elsewhere as a pending free agent, but he signed an extension last month to remain in Atlanta next season with a club option for 2025.
The Braves’ infield is the envy of baseball, led by first baseman Matt Olson, who leads MLB with 43 home runs and is signed through 2030. Homegrown second baseman Ozzie Albies, locked up through 2027, recently made his third All-Star appearance, though he is presently injured. Shortstop Orlando Arcia, inked to a modest contract through 2026, won the starting job in spring training and rewarded the club with a .283/.337/.443 slash line and seven outs above average on defense according to Baseball Savant. Barring a trade, Austin Riley will remain in Atlanta through 2033. His 4.2 WAR on Baseball-Reference leads all NL third basemen.
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Long-Term Contracts Propel The Atlanta Braves, But Hinder The New York Yankees
Daniel R. Epstein
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I am a baseball writer focusing on statistical analysis and labor.
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Aug 17, 2023,01:22pm EDT
Atlanta Braves catcher Travis d’Arnaud tags New York Yankees star Aaron Judge.
New York Yankees’ Aaron Judge falls to a knee in front of Atlanta Braves catcher Travis d’Arnaud … [+]COPYRIGHT 2023 THE ASSOCIATED PRESS. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
The Braves completed a three-game sweep of the Yankees on Wednesday, outscoring the visitors 18-3 in the series. At 78-42, Atlanta boasts the best record in MLB. The Yankees are far from the worst team at 60-61, but they’re a distant cry from their customary perch among baseball’s elite. On March 29, FanGraphs gave them an 81.2% likelihood of reaching the playoffs. Today, they reside in last place with 2.4% playoff chances.
The matchup juxtaposed two franchises headed in opposite directions. Ironically, they share a common catalyst for their divergent predicaments: long-term deals. Not counting pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players, Atlanta has nine position players and three pitchers signed through at least 2025, almost all of whom are playing well and driving their success.
The Yankees have four position players and two pitchers under contract through 2025, including six of the seven highest-salaried individuals on the roster. However, most of them have fallen short of expectations, which has become a major narrative around their collapse.
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Atlanta Braves Long-Term Contracts
Atlanta has all of their starting position players signed through at least 2025 except for their left fielder—including both of their catchers. Starter Sean Murphy, signed through 2029, leads all starting backstops in MLB with a .383 on-base percentage and .539 slugging percentage. Backup Travis d’Arnaud’s .452 slugging percentage is tenth among catchers with at least 200 plate appearances. He could easily have found more playing time elsewhere as a pending free agent, but he signed an extension last month to remain in Atlanta next season with a club option for 2025.
The Braves’ infield is the envy of baseball, led by first baseman Matt Olson, who leads MLB with 43 home runs and is signed through 2030. Homegrown second baseman Ozzie Albies, locked up through 2027, recently made his third All-Star appearance, though he is presently injured. Shortstop Orlando Arcia, inked to a modest contract through 2026, won the starting job in spring training and rewarded the club with a .283/.337/.443 slash line and seven outs above average on defense according to Baseball Savant. Barring a trade, Austin Riley will remain in Atlanta through 2033. His 4.2 WAR on Baseball-Reference leads all NL third basemen.
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Their outfield is led by right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr., who is signed through 2028. He is the presumptive frontrunner to win the NL MVP, currently leading the league in WAR (6.1), on-base percentage (.422), stolen bases (55), runs scored (109), and plate appearances (555). Center fielder Michael Harris II, under contract through 2032, won the NL Rookie of the Year award last season and is hitting .283 with 11 home runs. Marcell Ozuna is signed through 2025 to be the primary designated hitter. He has 24 home runs this year and a 111 OPS+, indicating his overall offensive output is 11% better than league average.
The ace of the Braves’ pitching staff is Spencer Strider, who is signed through 2029. He leads MLB qualified starters with 217 strikeouts and a 37.9% strikeout rate. Closer Raisel Iglesias, under contract through 2025, has a 3.11 ERA and a 31.6% strikeout rate. The only player on the club signed to a long-term contract who hasn’t lived up to expectations is reliever Tyler Matzek. He is signed on a low-cost deal with a club option for 2025, but he is out for the season following Tommy John surgery.
New York Yankees Long-Term Contracts
The Yankees re-signed their two biggest free agents this offseason, but both of them have suffered injury-riddled campaigns. Right fielder Aaron Judge signed a nine-year contract through 2031 after setting an AL record with 62 home runs and winning the AL MVP award in 2022. His 181 OPS+ this year is still exceptional, but a torn ligament in his right big toe kept him out of action from June 4-July 27 and has hampered his speed and defense since his return to the lineup.
First baseman Anthony Rizzo returned to the club this offseason on a two-year deal with a club option for 2025. He slashed .304/.376/.505 with 11 home runs through May 28 when he suffered a head injury after colliding with a baserunner. He played through what was likely an undiagnosed concussion for two months, and his production from the beginning of June through August 1 slumped to .172/.271/.225 with one home run before he finally succumbed to the IL.
The biggest new addition to the roster this season was starting pitcher Carlos Rodón, who agreed to a six-year deal through 2028. An injured forearm delayed his Yankees debut until July 7. In six starts, he has surrendered 22 runs and 18 walks in only 27 innings. He exited his August 6 outing in the third inning with a hamstring strain has been on the IL ever since.
Two more position players on long-term deals have underperformed as well. Designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton will remain under contract through 2027 with a 2028 team option sure to be declined. His .201 batting average, .283 on-base percentage, .444 slugging percentage, and 98 OPS+ are all the lowest marks of his career. Infielder D.J. LeMahieu is a two-time batting champion who is hitting only .242 this year. He’s under contract through 2026.
The only Yankee on a long-term deal whose season has gone according to expectations is starting pitcher Gerrit Cole, who is signed through 2028. He leads AL pitchers in WAR (5.1) and innings pitched (156.1) as he builds a strong case for the AL Cy Young award.
The Difference
The Braves have derived abundant value from their core players signed on long-term contracts, whereas the Yankees have not. This is more than merely luck. The average current age of the 12 Braves under contract through at least 2025 is 28.3. and eight of them are under 30. Acuña, Harris, and Strider are all 25 or younger.
For the six Yankees signed through 2025 and beyond, the average current age is 32.2. Rodón is the youngest of the group at the age of 30. Most likely, there will come a point where some of them are no longer productive enough to warrant playing time or a 26-man roster spot.
The heart of Atlanta’s roster will drive the team’s fortunes for a several seasons to come. The same is true for the Yankees, but rather than a blessing, this is a significant hindrance in their quest to become competitive over the coming years.
