Should Razorback Fans Be Concerned About Signing Class?
Sam Pittman announced the signing of the 2024 recruiting class during the early signing period. Should Hog fans be a little uneasy about the lower ranking?
First and 10: In the cutthroat SEC, you’re the perfect fit … until you’re not. Then, you’re fired
This is where we are in the SEC, where you’re only as good as your last game.
Week after week, season after season, this is what has become of coaching in the best conference in college football. There’s no such thing as patience, only immediate gratification.
Every game, every decision, is a referendum on a coaching tenure and its immediate future. If your name isn’t Saban or Smart, you’re in the barrel from Day 1.
It’s only a matter of time before it ends.
Case in point: South Carolina coach Shane Beamer and Arkansas coach Sam Pittman. Two perfect fits for their respective jobs, and both beloved by their administrations.
Both have proven they can recruit and win under difficult circumstances, despite an inherent SEC pecking order of a glass ceiling that’s nearly impossible — from their respective perch — to break through and win a championship.
No matter how good it looks, it will inevitably turn bad. And when it does — no matter how brief or extended — the end is almost always near.
The only question is when does it become untenable for schools to keep them?
Coaching — and more specifically, coaching in the SEC — is a brutal, unescapable self-fulfilling prophecy. You are going to lose, and more than likely, lose big.
And you will be fired.
Coaches don’t leave the SEC for jobs in other conferences. The last to do it was James Franklin, who did the unthinkable a decade ago and won 9 games at Vanderbilt (twice!), before leaving for the Penn State job.
Do your best, win games and eventually they get sick of you. Or the fan base turns, and the boosters follow and the next thing you know, the president and athletic director are standing at a podium declaring how much they love and respect Will Muschamp and everyone is sad and sobbing, but shoot, it’s nothing personal. It’s business.
So when it does end for Pittman and Beamer — 2 guys who should be coaching at their respective schools for a decade or more because, who the hell are they going to get that’s better? — it will look a lot like Florida pink-slipping Muschamp.
Everyone loved him, everyone wanted him to succeed. But the wolf is always at the door — and all it takes is just a crack to let the end in.
Both Pittman and Beamer cracked the door last weekend, doing what they always do: telling the truth. In a profession full of the disingenuous, their candor has been refreshing and rare.
Beamer began last weekend’s press conference after an ugly loss to Missouri — South Carolina’s 3rd straight loss and 4th in 5 games — by stating, “I know y’all get tired of hearing me say this …” He then proceeded to go over the same correctable mistakes South Carolina has made over the past month.
Meanwhile, Pittman admitted he blew it after a 7-3 loss to Mississippi State. Really, he did.
It was late in the 3rd quarter, and the Hogs trailed 7-3 and were at the Mississippi State 38, and the offense wasn’t moving the ball, and Pittman wasn’t sure if they could make a long field goal, and wasn’t sure if he wanted to waste a timeout to think about it because he may need the timeout later in the game, and didn’t know if he wanted to set up Mississippi State in a field position game, and, and …
He punted.
“To be honest with you, I really didn’t know what to do,” Pittman said.
The Razorbacks got the ball 4 more times in the 2nd half, and went interception, 3-and-out, 4-and-out, downs. And lost a 1-possession game for the 5th time this season and 9th time since 2022.
Early Sunday morning, mere hours after another loss, Pittman fired offensive coordinator Dan Enos. Because what else is he going to do?
The wolf needs fresh meat.
2. The quick flip
Before we go further, understand that Beamer isn’t going anywhere. In fact, he could lose every remaining game this season — at Texas A&M, Jacksonville State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Clemson — and still be safe.
He signed a substantial contract extension at the end of a breakthrough season in 2022, and it would be fiscally shortsighted (more on that later) for South Carolina to get out of the deal. But an ugly end to 2023 more than likely means make or break in 2024.
Then there’s Pittman, the man who was thisclose to winning 11 games last season — and earning a lifetime deal from Arkansas. If those 4 1-possession losses in 2022 go the way of the Hogs as they easily could have, this is a completely different conversation.
Because then this is a run of bad luck, a mere blip on the screen for the beloved coach who accomplished what no other coach has since the Hogs arrived in the SEC in 1992.
But those 1-possession games all went the wrong way, just like they did for the last beloved coach who was the perfect fit: Bret Bielema.
Now Pittman has fired his offensive coordinator. Now there’s a more critical view of why those 27 players left for the transfer portal. Or why OC Kendal Briles left for the TCU job.
Former Arkansas legendary basketball coach Nolan Richardson once said Hogs fans were so loyal, that if your cut them, “100 little Hogs come running out” of their veins. If you cut Pittman, he bleeds Hogs.
Two years ago, Pittman famously posed with trophies from winning rivalry games against Texas, Texas A&M and LSU, and a bowl win. Sitting on a king’s throne, with his fist under his chin and a you got that right smile, he couldn’t have been more Arkansas.
A year later, Arkansas lost the Southwest Classic (Texas A&M), Battle for the Boot (LSU) and Battle Line Trophy (Missouri) — all in 1-possession games.
This season, Arkansas has lost the Southwest Classic and the Battle for the Boot, and will be an underdog against Missouri in the season finale.
From 4-0 in the biggest games of the season, to winless the following 2 seasons.
How did we get here, you ask? Money, what else?
Money allows universities to run though head coaches, to fire those who hit a rough patch, or lose games they shouldn’t, or have lost the faithful screaming for change on social media.
And the SEC has always had more money than any other conference, a kitty full of such largess, changing coaches is already baked into the recipe. That projected $70 million annually per school for 2024 and beyond already has an undeniable line item of personnel turnover.
And if the university needs more cash because the last “mistake” of a hire cost it millions in buyout money, well, somebody get in touch with a few deep-pocket boosters and tell them we need help with our latest mistake.
From 2010-2021, the SEC reportedly paid out $123.2 million in dead money to coaches who were no longer coaching. That’s not including the $15.5 million Auburn paid former coach Bryan Harsin to go away after last season.
If Arkansas fires Pittman after the season, there’s $22.1 million left on his current deal. Per the terms of his contract, he is owed 75% of that if his team is .500 or better since the 2021 season. If the Hogs are under .500, Pittman is owed 50%, or $11.05 million.
Pittman is currently 18-16 since 2021, and even if he loses his final 3 SEC games (at Florida, Auburn, Missouri), he’d only need a home win over FIU to reach 19-19 and be owed 75% ($16.1 million). That doesn’t include the cost of paying off assistant coach salaries, and hiring a new coach and a new staff — which could push that number into an investment of $50-60 million.
Then there’s Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher, who’s a few losses from Aggies boosters reaching deep into those 10-gallon hats to find millions to buy him out. Texas A&M would owe Fisher 20 percent of his buyout within 60 days of termination ($19.2 million), then $7.2. million annually for the next 8 years.
If they want you gone bad enough, they’ll find the money.
4. The Ole Miss surge
Everyone is getting healthy, and Ole Miss is hitting its stride.
All it takes for a truly unique November is an LSU win over Alabama in 2 weeks. In that scenario, Alabama, LSU and Ole Miss will all have 1 SEC loss, with critical games still to play.
Nov. 11 alone would be a wild week of games, with potential upsets looming:
— Ole Miss at Georgia
— Alabama at Kentucky
— Florida at LSU
That’s why it’s so important that TBs Quinshon Judkins and Ulysses Bentley IV are playing 100 percent at the same time for the first time this season. WR Zakhari Franklin, one of the most productive players in the nation over the past 2 years at UTSA, is finally up to speed in Year 1 at Ole Miss. WR Tre Harris is, too, and the offensive line finally is playing with chemistry.
Now watch QB Jaxson Dart further develop over the final 5 games of the season. Ole Miss is unbeaten since the loss at Alabama in late September, Dart has accounted for 871 yards (127 rush) and 9 TDs (3 rush) — with only 1 INT.
The Rebels are averaging 37 points over those 3 games and face a similar stretch of games that gutted last year’s team. In 2022, Ole Miss won its first 7 games before losing 5-of-6 to finish the season.
Dart wore down in the 2nd half of the season, and his production tailed off. The last 6 games of 2022 — when Ole Miss averaged 24.8 ppg. — played a significant role in coach Lane Kiffin adding quarterbacks Spencer Sanders (Oklahoma State) and Walker Howard (LSU) from the transfer portal.
He wanted competition to make Dart better, and 7 games into this season, it clearly has.
Now all the Rebels need is an LSU win over Alabama, and things will get crazy fun in November.
5. The Weekly 5
Five picks against the spread.
Florida vs. Georgia (-17)
South Carolina at Texas A&M (-14)
Tennessee (-3.5) at Kentucky
Vanderbilt at Ole Miss (-23.5)
Mississippi State (+7.5) at Auburn
Last week: 3-2.
Season: 22-18.
6. Your tape is your resume
An NFL scout analyzes the prospects of a draft-eligible SEC player. This week: Alabama WR Jermaine Burton.
“This is a difficult evaluation. He has the measurables. He can run, and he shows up in big moments when they need him. But he’s so inconsistent from play to play. He has that 4.3 speed, but I’m not sure about the explosion and suddenness after the catch. If he runs a cross (pattern), he can catch and go. If he has to sit in zone, catch and run — that’s where I’m not sure about the quick turn and explosion. No question he has improved this season, in an offense that’s limited in the pass game.”
7. Powered Up
This week’s Power Poll, and 1 big thing.
1. Georgia: Kirby Smart has been desperate for motivation all season. Now he has it: How does Georgia overcome the loss of TE Brock Bowers?
2. Alabama: DC Kevin Steele has 2 weeks to figure out how to stop QB run. If Joe Milton III hurt the Tide, what will LSU’s Jayden Daniels do?
3. LSU: The defense has given up 39 plays of 20+ yards, and 20 plays of 30+ yards. A bad sign against an Alabama offense that wins games with big plays (19 of 30+ yards, and 13 of 40+ yards).
4. Ole Miss: After disposing of Vandy this week, the calendar turns to November, and season-defining games await. Specifically, at Georgia (Nov. 11) and at Mississippi State (Nov. 23).
5. Missouri: Tigers get 2 weeks to prepare for Georgia, which will be coming off a physical game against bitter rival Florida. An advantageous setup for a hot, confident team.
6. Tennessee: Milton has struggled against the 3 best defenses Tennessee has faced (5 TDs, 3 turnovers vs. Florida, Texas A&M, Alabama). It won’t get much easier with games looming at Kentucky and Missouri, and Georgia at home.
7. Kentucky: Cats get 2 weeks to prepare for Tennessee, extended self-eval time to find answers to QB Devin Leary’s struggles. This is a different team if Leary is efficient — like he was in 2021 at NC State.
8. Florida: Georgia leads the SEC in fewest sacks allowed (6); Florida’s defense is last in the SEC in sacks (11). The loss of Bowers won’t mean a thing unless the Gators can force QB Carson Beck into quick throws without the security of Bowers.
9. Texas A&M: Unless something different happens, this is a 7-win team. By different, I mean winning at Ole Miss and/or at LSU — 2 difficult lifts for a team struggling to string together efficient offensive drives.
10. Mississippi State: A huge win at Arkansas for a team teetering on missing out on the postseason. There’s still plenty of work ahead, but at least there’s a possible path now to 6 wins (Kentucky, Southern Miss?).
11. Auburn: Tigers have somehow stood toe-to-toe with Georgia and Ole Miss despite significant problems at the most important position on the field. The remaining schedule is manageable, now watch Auburn win 4 in a row (Mississippi State, at Vanderbilt, at Arkansas, New Mexico State).
12. South Carolina: We should’ve seen this from the jump. The only thing that works is the passing game — and the Gamecocks can’t protect QB Spencer Rattler (31 sacks).
13. Arkansas: But for a remarkable 82-yard punt return for a touchdown in September by Texas A&M’s Ainias Smith, Arkansas would have 6 straight 1-possession losses.
14. Vanderbilt: If you’re the Vandy administration, this is where you see what you have with coach Clark Lea: a bye week, and 2 weeks to prepare for a game at Ole Miss. It may not be winnable, but can Vandy play mistake-free football (or close to it)?
8. Ask and you shall receive
Matt: The thing no one is talking about is Florida will be in the driver’s seat in the SEC East if they beat Georgia. Not bad for a coach in his second year. — Carol Fleming, Orlando.
Carole:
If Florida beats Georgia, the East Division race is wide open. And by wide open, I mean Georgia, Florida, Missouri and the Tennessee-Kentucky winner will all play November games of significance in the East Division.
There are 3 teams that control their fate in the East: Georgia, Missouri and Florida. If Florida beats Georgia, the Gators still need wins at LSU and Missouri sandwiched around a home game win over Arkansas.
That said, let’s not forget what we’re dealing with: the Gators beat a bad South Carolina team, and suddenly, we’re talking about an upset of Georgia. But there is 1 thing that gives me pause with the huge betting line favoring Georgia: the Florida defense.
The Gators are No. 2 in the SEC in opponent big plays (10+ yards) allowed (11 per game), and No. 3 in 3rd-down conversion percentage allowed (29.1%). They limit the damaging explosion plays, and they get off the field — a huge turnaround from last season.
In the past 2 games of the series (both Georgia wins), the Bulldogs converted 12-of-21 3rd- and 4th-down opportunities (57%), and had 31 big plays.
9. Numbers
9. It wasn’t long ago that Missouri was a model of stability, averaging 9 wins a season from 2006-2014. The Tigers were so good in 2013, they were an SEC Championship Game win over Auburn from playing in the BCS National Championship Game.
That was 1 of 2 chances to play for it all from 2006-2104, and both were lost opportunities on championship weekend: the 2007 Big 12 Championship Game loss to Oklahoma, and the loss to Auburn.
Coming into this season, Missouri was 25-41 in SEC play since those back-to-back SEC Championship Game appearances. Now the Tigers are 3-1 in the SEC, and primed to reach 9 wins overall for the first time since winning the East Division in 2014.
10. Quote to note
Auburn coach Hugh Freeze: “I feel like that we’ve got to coach them better, and it starts with me. Regardless of whether you may be the most talented team on a certain night, you certainly can be well-coached in critical areas and critical downs. The margin for us between winning and losing right now is so small that we can’t mess those up.”
