ASHBURN, Va. — The projection changes by the week. For a while, Sam Howell looked like the clear quarterback of the future for the Washington Commanders. Lately, it has become less clear. And it has led to questions about what his role will be after this season.

Some of it could depend on how he plays in the next three games. A lot of it will be determined by who’s making that decision, with coach Ron Rivera and his staff likely to be gone. That’s why the referendum on Howell will continue each week, including Sunday’s game at the New York Jets (5-9).

Howell doesn’t pay much attention to what’s being discussed. He says his focus is on the next game. That’s all he can control. And if he plays well, he makes a stronger argument to stick with him.

“Obviously there’s a lot of questions about what’s going to happen after this year,” he said, “but I feel like if I’m playing my best football at a consistent rate, then those questions won’t be there. I’m just going to try to keep doing what I can to play good football and put good film on tape these last three games.”

Former NFL general manager Rick Spielman has studied Howell this season and said the quarterback’s late struggles will lead to uncertainty over his future. Spielman said anyone making the decision must determine if any drop-off stems from him, pass protection or the skill talent around him.

“There are a lot of things they have to look at in the offseason to determine if he’s the guy or not,” Spielman said.

THE CASE FOR

Howell shows promise

Howell has had more than a few moments — and games — that showed his talent. He led Washington to rally from an 18-deficit at the Denver Broncos by throwing for 206 yards and two touchdowns in the final three quarters while posting a QBR of 77.2 in that stretch. He threw a combined five touchdowns to one interception in two games against the Philadelphia Eagles. He has routinely made off-schedule passes for big completions — notably in a win at the New England Patriots.

Howell had one seven-game stretch in which he threw 14 touchdown passes — tying Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen for the most during this period — and only four picks. Howell has shown toughness by running with physicality — he crashed off three defenders en route to a 7-yard touchdown run last month versus the New York Giants.

“He’s grown a lot,” Washington guard Sam Cosmi said. “He’s progressed a lot, especially with his confidence. He’s tough. He’s a really, really good quarterback and he has a lot of potential to be a great quarterback. He has the arm. He has the talent. He has all that stuff. I love blocking for Sam.”

If the current staff were to return, there’d be little doubt about their intentions with Howell.

“We do feel strongly about the quarterback,” Rivera said. “We feel we have a guy going forward that we have a chance to grow and become what we think we can, and to do so, you’ve got to be able to afford the situation, and I think that’s what’s growing for us right now.”

The draft

Washington currently holds the No. 4 pick in the draft, which means — if the Commanders can’t trade up — they’d likely be selecting the third-best quarterback in the draft after expected top-two picks Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are taken. LSU Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels will be under consideration for any team wanting a quarterback.

Washington has drafted four quarterbacks in the first round in the past 20 years: Patrick Ramsey (32nd pick, 2002), Jason Campbell (25th, 2005), Robert Griffin III (second, 2012) and Dwayne Haskins (15th, 2020). Only Campbell started more than 35 games. New Commanders owner Josh Harris has shown a willingness to be patient with the other teams he owns (Philadelphia 76ers, New Jersey Devils and Crystal Palace). If that remains the case with the Commanders, he won’t force the issue at quarterback.

“If you stay at four, you have to go offensive tackle and ride it out with Sam,” ESPN NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid said. “He earned another year based on what he’s shown. Four is a little too high for Jayden. I would only feel comfortable taking Caleb or Drake Maye in the top 10. There’s always a third quarterback that gets pushed up; I think Jayden will end up being that guy.”

How he has handled the situation

One member of the organization said Howell deserves a lot of credit for how he’s handled a tough year — from the number of sacks to the losses and to the typical ups and downs of a first-year starter. “He could have easily imploded,” the source said.

Howell has been sacked 59 times this season, including 40 in the first seven games. Players and coaches like that it didn’t cause him to become too skittish in the pocket. In the first seven games, his sack percentage of 12.8% was second worst in the NFL. In the last seven games, it’s 6.1% — 19 quarterbacks have a higher number.

“He’s smart, he learns from his mistakes,” Washington offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy said. “He’s done a great job having pocket presence after having the issues at times. He does a great job of communicating with the guys up front. I’m very happy with his development and his growth process. Do we have a long way to go? Yes, we do, but he’s taking the necessary steps moving forward, and that’s the excitement that really generates us as an offensive staff, because he’s growing every single day.”

They also liked that he didn’t let a bad play get him down.

“With Sam, every time there’s some adversity, he came back the next week and did a really good job,” receiver Terry McLaurin said. “He’s handled this season like a pro. There have been ups and downs and he’s had good times and bad times, and it’s just his ability to stay focused and come back better when he gets that opportunity is something I look forward to.”

THE CASE AGAINST

THE CASE AGAINST

A new staff

With a 4-10 record and a new owner, Rivera and the front office are on perilous footing. That means the football side of the organization could have a brand-new look in 2024 — possibly with no ties to Howell. He hasn’t helped his case in recent weeks: He has thrown two touchdown passes to six interceptions over his last four games, and he has thrown pick-sixes in three consecutive games during this span.

In the past, when Washington has changed coaches and had a young quarterback — Griffin and Haskins — the new staff rolled with them, knowing previous owner Dan Snyder wanted them to start, multiple sources have said.

That won’t be the case with Howell. Harris has a reputation for not meddling, those who have worked for his other sports teams say.

Spielman said if there indeed is a new staff, they must interview everyone on that current staff, maybe retaining some. This also would potentially be Howell’s third offense he has had to learn in three years, which could have an impact on his growth.

“I would talk to the staff about how they feel about Sam and his practice habits, his study habits,” Spielman said. “Everything that came out of North Carolina were all A-pluses in that area. I would make sure when interviewing with the new owner I’m prepared on the tape work I’ve done on Sam and the background I’ve had from the outside to give an indication if he’s the quarterback of the future or not.”

The draft

Yes, it can work against Howell, as well. A new staff could determine that Daniels — or Michael Penix Jr., or another quarterback — offers the best fit to grow in their scheme. Or that a rookie has a higher ceiling. Or, perhaps, the Commanders could attempt to acquire one of the top two picks and select either Williams or Maye. Washington owns five picks among the first 100, having added a second- and third-round pick at the trade deadline.

If Chicago ends up with the top pick, courtesy of Carolina, and wants to stick with Justin Fields at quarterback, then there probably will be competition for that spot. In that case, Reid said picking one of the top two passers would make the most sense. He said he had Howell as a late second-round pick in 2022. He has both Williams and Maye rated much higher.

“The gap is significant,” Reid said. “Both of them can be transcendent franchise quarterback types. Sam is an Andy Dalton type, top 15-20 starter at his peak. When Andy had his run, [the Bengals] made the playoffs. He was a playoff quarterback. So that’s not a shot at Sam. I’m trying to envision what he could be at his peak. He can still attain that ceiling, but [Williams and Maye] are a different type of prospect.”

Spielman said, thinking as an organization, “If we believe we have a shot at Caleb Williams or Drake Maye and those guys will get you to the Super Bowl, then I don’t know if you can pass on them regardless of how you feel about him.”

The contract

When Rivera mentioned last offseason why they wanted to develop Howell, he’d point to his contract — in addition to his talent and potential. Howell will be on a rookie contract for the next two seasons, allowing the franchise to invest in other positions before needing to determine his future value.

However, if a new staff comes in and determines they’d prefer another quarterback — whether to start or just to compete with Howell — that clock could start over. It could allow the Commanders to have a quarterback on a rookie deal for four or five years if they select one in the first round and have an option year