Even before his absence, there was reason to expect regression moving forward. Oubre was shooting 50.0% overall and 37.8% from three-point range, both of which smashed his previous career-highs of 45.2% and 35.2%, respectively. He’s likely getting more open looks alongside Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid than he did in Charlotte, but he also spent a season with the Golden State Warriors and didn’t shoot that well.

Oubre has been a bit more inconsistent since coming back in early December. Across 14 games (including seven starts), he’s averaging 11.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.8 threes and 1.2 steals while shooting 45.8% overall and 37.9% from deep. However, the team has gone 11-3 over those 14 games, four of which came without Embiid. Oubre has been a key to some of those wins.

Even if Oubre’s numbers continue to plateau, there’s value in proving that he can contribute to a winning team. His ability to hold his own defensively against Boston Celtics star forward Jayson Tatum earlier this season was perhaps more impressive than anything he’s done offensively as a Sixer.

“He’s been really good,” head coach Nick Nurse told reporters earlier this season. “I think Kelly [Oubre Jr.], you know he’s certainly, he scored 20 points a game last year, I know people say, ‘Ah, you know, it’s empty.’ So, the capability to drive and shoot is there. Again, I think his athleticism, and he’s got a high compete level, he’s competing at both ends.”

That should be great news for Oubre’s future earning prospects. It’s not-so-great news for the Sixers, though.

Since Oubre signed a one-year deal with them, they only have non-Bird rights on him in free agency. That means that unless they re-sign him using salary-cap space or a cap exception, they can only offer him 120% of what he’s earning now as the starting salary of his new deal. He might have offers for the full $13.0 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception (if not more) elsewhere if he keeps this up.

If the Sixers plan to go the cap-space route this summer, they’ll either have to carve out some of that space to re-sign Oubre or hope he’s willing to settle for the $8.1 room mid-level exception. But if they’re an over-the-cap team, they’ll either have to use their non-taxpayer or taxpayer MLE to re-sign him or hope he’s willing to re-sign via Bird rights.

Oubre might not want to forgo an eight-figure annual salary, even if he’d prefer to stay with the Sixers. There’s not much the Sixers could do to prevent him from leaving in that case. Before Oubre does leave, though, the Sixers might appeal to him using Milwaukee Bucks forward Bobby Portis.

Portis had a chance to leave the Bucks for bigger paydays, but he stayed on a smaller deal with the likely assumption of a larger contract down the road. One year later, he signed a four-year, $48.6 million deal, which was the most the Bucks could offer him via his Early Bird rights.

If Oubre re-signs with the Sixers next summer in any capacity, he’ll be eligible for a four-year deal worth well north of $50 million in 2025-26 via Early Bird rights. That still might not be enough money to keep him around long-term, but it’s at least an option that a fellow contender used to lock up a key piece in recent years.

Because Oubre is only on a one-year, veteran-minimum contract, he isn’t likely to have much trade value. Any team that acquires him will be in the same non-Bird conundrum that the Sixers find themselves in, and few teams project to have anywhere near as much cap space as the Sixers do.

The Sixers figure to keep Oubre around through the deadline and see how far they can get in the playoffs with him on the roster. That will help inform whom they should and shouldn’t re-sign this summer among their 12 soon-to-be free agents.

If Oubre bounces back to his first-month form at any point this season, he could push himself higher in next year’s free-agent class. That’s a dilemma that the Sixers may just have to confront when the time comes.

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