ALLEN PARK — The third-seeded Detroit Lions (12-5) will host the sixth-seeded Los Angeles Rams (10-7) on Sunday night in a wild-card game at Ford Field.
Perhaps you’ve heard.
It’s one of the hottest tickets in the history of the wild-card round, as Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit and Jared Goff goes toe-to-toe with the head coach who gave up on him. Detroit is a slim three-point favorite against the Rams, thanks largely to the home advantage and one of the best offenses in the league.
But on the other side of the football, the Lions’ 27th-ranked pass defense is going to face a tall challenge against one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL.
Here are three keys to slowing down that attack.
Pressure Matthew Stafford: Stopping the Rams starts with stopping Matthew Stafford, the former Lions great who has continued to be great for Los Angeles, including playing brilliant football en route to a Super Bowl title in his first season with the Rams. And since returning from a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his throwing thumb in Week 11, he’s been especially brilliant, throwing for 1,865 yards — second most in the league during that stretch — 16 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He ranked No. 4 in efficiency per attempt. And, surprise, L.A. went 6-1 in those games.
No. 9 is cooking in his return to Ford Field, which could pose a serious challenge for a Lions defense that has been much better this season, but has been at its worst on the perimeter. Cam Sutton and Kindle Vildor against Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, well, you can probably see where this is going. It’s a matchup that favors L.A. perhaps more than any other in this game. So naturally, slowing the Rams will start with dousing Stafford in pressure so he can’t get off the ball cleanly. He’s completing 70.5% of his passes when kept clean this season, thrown 15 touchdown passes, made just seven turnover-worthy plays all year, and racked up a passer rating of 99.6.
Under duress, Stafford is completing just 43.9% of his passes, and his passer rating dives to 75.7.
The good news is the Lions’ pass rush has come alive in recent weeks, led by the spectacular Aidan Hutchinson, who racked up five sacks in the last two games alone. He finished with 11.5 sacks and generated 101 pressures overall, which was just two off Micah Parson’s league lead (103).
Detroit has also gotten better pressure from its complementary parts, including two sacks and a forced fumble in December for veteran Romeo Okwara. The Lions have also blitzed more effectively, with linebacker Alex Anzalone enjoying a career season (three sacks and 12 QB hits) while safety Ifeatu Melifonwu generated three sacks and five quarterback hits after being promoted to the starting lineup last month. Defensive tackle Alim McNeill also has generated a career-high five sacks, and should be at full speed after returning from injury last week.
Tighten up the tackling: The Lions haven’t been an especially good tackling team this season, ranking in the bottom five in blown tackles according to Pro Football Focus. The Rams, meantime, love to get the football in the hands of their skill players and let them run away from people. Running back Kyren Williams has been especially elusive, racking up 51 missed tackles forced this season. That made him one of the 10 most elusive backs in the league. He finished with 1,144 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in 12 games this season.
“I actually showed couple of clips to all the defense,” defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said. “Even though he’s a guy that some people say smaller stature, he’s not just a small guy. He does a really good job of breaking tackles. That’s why we have to be the best tackling team throughout these playoffs, because of that. Every team that you’re playing is a team that does a really good job of breaking tackles, but this team in particular, with the receivers and with the running back, that we’ve got to do a good job of. So, he’s tough. He’s powerful. He has this stiff arm that’s effective and we’ve got to understand that. So, we have to make sure that we wrap up and have population to the ball with this player.”
In the passing game, rookie receiver Puka Nacua finished with 640 yards after the catch this season, which was sixth best in the league.
Handle the turbo motion: The Rams love to stress defenses with a heavy dose of turbo motions, using them more than everyone except the Miami Dolphins. Nacua and Kupp have feasted out of those looks this season, getting them moving as the ball is snapped to create easy separation and favorable matchups. And Stafford is as good as anyone in the league at hitting his guys and letting them roll downfield.
The key to handling all that motion is to not get confused by the eye candy before the snap and blow an assignment after it. Communication will be essential to avoiding the confusion that L.A. has feasted on in the second half of the season, especially for a Lions secondary that has added a new cornerback (Kindle Vildor) and a couple new safeties (Melifonwu and Ceedy Duce) in recent weeks. This secondary hasn’t played a lot of snaps together, and in a frenzied Ford Field, communication will be critical to avoiding easy chunk plays for Stafford and the Rams.
“The challenge with it is really not what it does to you defensively, from a schematic standpoint, it’s more about the eye candy of it,” head coach Dan Campbell said. “If you just stay true to your rules and understand who’s (responsible for) that motion, who’s got this turbo motion, and play your rules and don’t start chasing the butterflies, man, just stay focused on your responsibilities, your keys. Because one step the wrong way with that motion, and all of a sudden we lose a support player, and that’s where they get you.”
