Sad: Just Now’ NFL Divisional Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Has Be Suspend…

NFL Divisional Round preview and prediction for Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

We’re breaking new ground here at On Paper. For the first time ever, we’re covering a Divisional Round game as the Detroit Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a ticket to the NFC Championship game. While the two teams faced off in Week 6, there’s plenty that has changed about both teams since that mid-October matchup.

So let’s just jump right into our NFC playoff preview and prediction for Lions vs. Buccaneers.

Of note: Because this is the first time in On Paper history that we’re dealing with a second round in the playoffs, it’s worth noting that all averages and DVOA numbers are from the regular season only, unless otherwise stated. That includes the average columns in the charts.

Outside of the Bears games and the Ravens game, this Lions passing offense has been the model of good, consistent football. Jared Goff has posted nine games with a 100+ passer rating, and Detroit has finished with at least 250 net passing yards in 11 games.

Overall as a team, the Lions rank seventh in dropback EPA, fifth in success rate, fifth in passer rating, fifth in PFF passing grade, and sixth in yards per attempt. Just about every metric shows this is a passing attack pushing near a top-five spot in the league, and after a little midseason lull, they are back playing at their best again.

Goff is helped by one of the best pass-blocking units in football. Detroit ranks fourth in adjusted sack rate, fourth in sacks allowed, and 10th in PFF pass blocking grade.

Then, of course, there’s the litany of weapons at Goff’s disposal. First-team All Pro Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the way. He has at least six catches in 14 of 17 games played this season, and he’s crossed over 100 yards in 10 games—including the last time the Lions played the Buccaneers. But Detroit also utilizes a heavy dose of tight end Sam LaPorta, Josh Reynolds, and has more recently been getting Jameson Williams involved.

The Bucs pass defense chart doesn’t exactly vibe with the 14th DVOA ranking—it looks significantly worse. Their best performances were early in the season, and most of their green cells came against some pretty awful passing attacks. Look at teams who averaged a 90+ passer rating on the season, and you’ll find a dominant performance against the Bucs defense.

Tampa ranks 22nd in pass defense EPA, 16th in success rate, 22nd in passer rating allowed (92.0), and 26th in yards per attempt. That feels a bit closer to where their level is at: below average.

That said, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles plays an aggressive game designed to create disruptive plays. Thanks largely to the team’s third-highest blitz rate in the league (40.1%), they rank seventh in sacks and are tied for 17th in interceptions.

But without the blitz, I’m not so sure this defense packs that much of a punch. Their secondary ranks 22nd in PFF coverage grade, and the team has just 64 passes defended on the season, tied for the fourth-fewest in the NFL.

Player to watch: Antoine Winfield Jr. The Bucs safety leads the team in passes defended (12), interceptions (3), forced fumbles (6), and fumble recoveries (4). He is a game disrupter waiting to happen. Lions must take care of the ball when he’s in the vicinity.

Advantage: Lions +3. Last matchup, the Lions were one-dimensional on offense and still managed to dominate the Buccaneers through the air. I think they have a better chance to be balanced this week, and I haven’t seen any significant improvement from the Bucs this season to believe Detroit should struggle this time around.

The Lions run game has hit a bit of a snag as of late. It’s not like it has been horrible, but it certainly hasn’t been up to Detroit’s lofty standards. The last two games are the first time this rush offense had been held under 4.0 yards per carry since… oh, the last time the Lions played the Buccaneers.

Now, that Bucs game certainly comes with some asterisks. Most notably, no Jonah Jackson or Jahmyr Gibbs in that game—and David Montgomery left in the second quarter with a rib injury. But as we’ll see in a second, Tampa’s defense deserves a ton of credit.

Detroit’s reputation in the run game this year has been fantastic. They ranked first in adjusted line yards, 13th in ESPN’s run block win rate, and second in PFF run blocking grade—and it has resulted in some pretty impressive overall stats for the unit. Detroit finished the season fifth in rushing yards, fifth in yards per carry (4.6), sixth in EPA, and eighth in success rate.

There is one aspect of the game they oddly struggle with though, and that’s short-yardage situations. Detroit ranks just 18th in power success rate, per FTN Fantasy, converting on short-yardage runs (defined as 2 yards or less to go on third or fourth down) just 65 percent of the time.

The Bucs run defense has only allowed 4.0 yards per carry or more twice in the last 11 games, and they’ve only allowed 150 rushing yards three times all season.

Tampa finds success stopping the pass thanks to a strong front seven, led by the likes of defensive tackles Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey, and linebacker Lavonte David. Oddly, they rank 14th in adjusted line yards, 22nd in run stop win rate, and 25th in PFF run defense grade. However, they are seventh in yards per carry allowed (3.8), fifth in yards per game (95.3), fifth in EPA, and 17th in success rate.