November 5, 2024

If you’re going to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl, get ready to lose

I haven’t been to Las Vegas since 1986. They tell me it’s very different now.

One thing is the same. The house always wins.

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The first time I walked into a casino and looked around, I realized who had paid for all of it. And I knew that, no matter how much I tried to fool myself into thinking I’d win, I wouldn’t. (And I didn’t.)

You’ll win some. You lose some. Over time, you’ll lose more than you win. Case in point, December 2023 resulted in the biggest haul for the various houses in the history of Nevada, with $1.43 billion. In one month.

February 2024 should beat it. Because tens of thousands of football fans and media will be showing up for a week of trying to win games that are designed, over time, to make you lose.

You’ll have some fun along the way. You’ll get cheap food and free drinks (lots of free drinks, especially while gambling). And if you’re really bad at gambling, they’ll give you a bunch of other free stuff. (If one of the few who are really good at gambling, they’ll try to find a way to kick you out.)

At some level, everyone who goes to Vegas knows it’s going to happen, even if they can delude themselves into thinking they’ll be one of the very few to cash out with a wide smile.

Part of the reality is the basic psychology of gambling. The money you lose isn’t the same as the money you need. (Even if it is.)

When David Letterman once did a week of shows from Las Vegas, he told a joke that went something this like this:

I was walking down the street today. A guy walked up to me and said, “My wife needs an operation. Can you give me some money to pay for it?”

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I said to him, “I’d love to help you out. But how do I know you won’t take this money and gamble with it?”

And the guy said, “Oh, I’ve got gambling money.”

Everyone who goes to Vegas for the Super Bowl will have gambling money. And most of them will lose it.

Including me. And I’m still looking forward to it.

Because you never really know when the dice will get hot.

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Recent World Series matchups we just might see again in 2024

On Feb. 11, Super Bowl LVIII (that’s 58) will be played at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, and it’s a matchup that will look familiar to those with a passing interest in the sport of professional football: the Kansas City Chiefs vs. the San Francisco 49ers. This is, of course, the exact same matchup we saw in Super Bowl LIV (that’s 54), four years ago, when the Chiefs beat the 49ers, 31-20.

You know where championship rematches are rare, though? The World Series.

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This century, in fact, there has been only one: The Boston Red Sox and the St. Louis Cardinals met in both 2004 and 2013. (The Red Sox won both.)

There are plenty of reasons why this will likely to continue to be uncommon, but that doesn’t mean the drought won’t end this year. So we’re going to look at every World Series matchup this century — we’re including 2000, which we know is not technically this century, but c’mon, don’t be so pedantic — and rank them by the likelihood of seeing a rematch in 2024.

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1) 2017: Astros vs. Dodgers
There will be many 2024 preseason predictions that include this very World Series matchup, and don’t let any lingering controversy about this Astros team distract you from how great the 2017 version was. The only bummer was that Game 7 was the least exciting one of the seven they played. This year was also the start of the Astros’ active streak of seven consecutive ALCS appearances.

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2) 2021: Braves vs. Astros
At many points during the regular season in both 2022 and 2023, it looked like we would get this very rematch. It may look that way at several points in 2024 as well.

3) 2020: Dodgers vs. Rays
Until the Dodgers win a World Series after a full 162-game schedule, this Series win — unfairly, I’d very much argue, but it’s nevertheless true — will be seen as somehow lesser. The Dodgers have clearly muscled up to erase that sort of blasphemy from people’s lips: To do so against the Rays would have a certain poetry to it.

4) 2022: Astros vs. Phillies
These were the two League Championship Series losers last year, so we did just come quite close to a Fall Classic rematch.

5) 2023: Rangers vs. D-backs
Is it possible that both of these teams will be better, start to finish, in 2024 than they were in 2023? Perhaps. That doesn’t necessarily make it likely they’ll return for the first back-to-back World Series matchup since the Dodgers and Yankees in 1977-78, but it’s certainly on the table.

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6) 2008: Phillies vs. Rays
This wasn’t just the first World Series appearance for the Rays — it was the first playoff appearance in franchise history. They’ve made it eight times since then, including one more World Series appearance in 2020. The Phillies are a legitimate contender to make it this year, if not quite the favorite the Dodgers are. Let’s just hope if we get this rematch, the final game doesn’t take three days to complete.

7) 2009: Yankees vs. Phillies
Did you hear this was the last time the Yankees made the World Series? You might have heard something about that. The Phillies are still smarting from how close they came to making their second consecutive World Series last year, and out of all the teams the Yankees have played in the World Series this century, the Phils do seem like the most likely to make it back in 2024.

8) 2001: D-backs vs. Yankees
One of the most memorable World Series ever ended with a Luis Gonzalez single that gave the D-backs their first (and only) World Series title. The Yankees have only won once since then, and in 2023, Arizona became the 16th team to reach the World Series since the Yankees last made one in 2009.

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9) 2000: Yankees vs. Mets
The Subway Series! At the time, these two franchises were packed with stars and big personalities. There are still plenty of stars around in 2024, too, although both clubs have a lot to prove after things went off the rails a year ago.

10) 2018: Red Sox vs. Dodgers
The most recent Red Sox title feels, frankly, like it happened a very long time ago. The Dodgers have built the sustainable success that the Red Sox were not able to manage after 2018.

11) 2003: Marlins vs. Yankees
Unlike the Yankees, the Marlins did make the playoffs in 2023. That said, they haven’t shown much urgency to build on that success or make an immediate leap forward. It’s your call between the Mets and the Marlins here: Whichever team you think will be better in 2024, place them higher in the rankings of a potential Yankees rematch. We went with the Mets.

12) 2010: Giants vs. Rangers
The next two slots, you can flip-flop, depending on whether you think the Giants or the Cardinals are more likely to make the World Series this year. We’ll go with the team that didn’t finish in last place in 2023.

13) 2011: Cardinals vs. Rangers
After what happened last year, it’s fair to say, this World Series would bring back a lot fewer bad memories for Rangers fans than it would have otherwise.

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14) 2004/2013: Red Sox vs. Cardinals
In 2023, the Cardinals finished in last place for the first time since 1990, but they’ve reinforced their rotation and look like one of the contenders in the forever-in-flux National League Central. The Red Sox also finished in last in 2023, albeit with a better record in a much tougher division. But considering that division and their own state of competitive limbo right now, they seem just as far from a World Series as the Cardinals — maybe further.

15) 2012: Giants vs. Tigers
Is this the least memorable World Series this century? The Giants had just won the World Series two years earlier, this Tigers team only won 88 games during the regular season, and it was a sweep.

16) 2006: Cardinals vs. Tigers
This was Justin Verlander’s rookie year — so long ago he went 0-for-2 at the plate and had a record of 0-2 in the World Series — and it resulted in one of the more surprising World Series winners in history, the 83-win Cardinals. This could be a quiet sleeper pick: It wouldn’t be all that shocking to see each team win its respective Central division this year.

17) 2016: Cubs vs. Guardians
At the time, both of these teams were young and packed with talent. It sure looked like a World Series rematch (of one of the greatest World Series of the century) was very much in the cards. That wasn’t the way things went.

18) 2002: Angels vs. Giants
We can all hope that Mike Trout reaches a World Series at some point in his career, but it sure doesn’t seem like “the year after Shohei Ohtani leaves” is going to be the time to do it.

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19) 2019: Nationals vs. Astros
The Astros may well return to the World Series this year. The Nationals, however …

20) 2014: Giants vs. Royals
I was in attendance at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City for this Game 7, and every Royals fan I talked to was particularly despairing because they thought it was their only real chance to win one of these. It did not turn out that way.

21) 2015: Royals vs. Mets
I’ll take the Giants over the Mets as the more likely team to reach the World Series in 2024. Either way, another confrontation with the Royals seems like quite a longshot.

22) 2007: Red Sox vs. Rockies
Since this World Series appearance, the Rockies have made three postseasons and won two playoff games. Neither number looks likely to increase in 2024.

23) 2005: White Sox vs. Astros
Fair to say: This is the easiest call on the board, given that the White Sox look to be rebuilding after a 101-loss season.

 

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