The NHL is less than three weeks from the trade deadline, which means speculation is ramping up and the rumor mill is churning.
Colorado has a couple of obvious places on the roster where an addition could help. The Avalanche’s biggest issue is at center behind Nathan MacKinnon, where the Avs either need Ryan Johansen to rediscover a previous level or find someone else to help Ross Colton in those No. 2/3 center spots. A backup goaltender to spell Alexandar Georgiev, who continues to pace the league in goalie starts, wouldn’t hurt either.
The problem: The Avs don’t have much financial flexibility.
They do have a few intriguing prospects, but they don’t have a second- or third-round pick in 2024 or a second in 2025 (the firsts are available).
They also have two young defensemen on the NHL roster — Bo Byram and Samuel Girard — who would likely be very attractive to other clubs, but the pros and cons of moving one of them could fill up another Sunday journal.
First, let’s start with a primer for where the Avalanche stands and what the club can do between now and the deadline. The Avs have no cap space. They have operated well over the league’s salary-cap ceiling all season, with $9 million in long-term injury relief available through the Gabe Landeskog and Pavel Francouz contracts.
The Avs currently have $1.242 million of that LTIR relief space available, per Cap Friendly. The key point here is that LTIR relief does not work like regular cap space.
Cap space is re-counted every day, and teams below the ceiling can save up more space for later in the year. When a team with cap space trades for a player, they only have to absorb the pro-rated amount said player is due the rest of the season. This is how a team with minimal cap space can still add a player with a bigger cap hit.
It’s more straightforward with LTIR teams. The Avs cannot add more than $1.242 million in full-season cap hits. If they wanted to trade for a player with a $5.242 million cap hit, $4 million would have to come off the current roster to make it work. If someone suggests the Avs could trade for an NHL roster player whose cap hit is more than $1.242 million with just draft picks or non-roster prospects as the return, that’s not a legal transaction.
Colorado could add to its LTIR relief by placing a player or two on waivers and sending them to the Eagles if they clear. The obvious candidates would be Caleb Jones (who has probably played well enough to get claimed) and Kurtis MacDermid.
But that would also mean going down to 21 or even 20 players on the roster, which could lead to playing with a compromised roster anytime someone has a minor injury or illness the rest of the season. Jones in particular is also an insurance policy the club is almost certainly going to need in the playoffs.
If we set the parameters at potentially available, fitting with the Avs’ financial restrictions but still performing better than Ivan Prosvetov and Justus Annunen, the pickings are slim.
Who could the Avalanche add without moving a roster player? Either Sharks goaltender, Kaapo Kahkonen ($2.75 million, UFA) or MacKenzie Blackwood ($2.35 million, one more year) could work if San Jose ate half. The Sharks are short on retention slots, but including MacDermid would make the money work.
Both San Jose goalies have been on the plus side of goals saved above expected this season. Kahkonen in particular grades out well by a metric Jared Bednar has cited publicly on multiple occasions. Another option could be Pittsburgh’s Alex Nedeljkovic ($1.5 million, UFA), who is having a nice year as the Penguins’ backup. Washington’s Charlie Lindgren ($1.1 million, one more year) has been the Capitals’ MVP, but the team would likely need to give up the playoff chase to make him available.
The big name available might be Marc-Andre Fleury, who The Athletic reported will only consider waiving his no-movement clause if the Wild fall out of playoff contention. Fleury is in the final year of his contract ($3.5 million). It’s important to note that his goals saved above expected is worse than all three goalies the Avs have used this season.
For the Avs to add Fleury, someone has to come off the NHL roster. And whoever that is would likely create another hole. As an example, if the Avs included Johansen ($4 million this year and next) and got the Wild to eat half of Fleury’s cap hit, that would create $2.25 million in new LTIR relief. It would also likely cost the Avs an extra asset or two to move Johansen’s contract … and now the need for a No. 2 center is even greater.
