Monday is when it all begins, the NFL free agency land rush. Starting at 11 a.m. that morning, NFL teams can begin talking to free agents from other teams. Because they have more free agents than any other team in the NFL, the Texans have more holes to fill than any other team in the NFL. Between now and Monday, though, they still have exclusive access to their own free agents.

The process of bringing some of last year’s stalwarts on the 10-7 division champion Texans began on Tuesday with tight end Dalton Schultz inking a three-year, $36 million deal to return to the Texans in 2024. There are roughly two dozen free agents who could return to the Texans. Here are the six most relevant ones remaining, and my estimate on the percentage chance they come back.

Here we go…

Jonathan Greenard, DE, Age 26
Greenard is going to be one fo the most sought after free agent edge rushers on the market, especially after Brian Burns and Josh Allen both received franchise tags. He had 12.5 sacks last season, and most importantly, was healthy for most of the year. His price might exceed $20 million per year.
Odds of return: 33 percent

Devin Singletary, RB, Age 26
Singletary was brought in to be a complement to Dameon Pierce. Instead, because Pierce just couldn’t get untracked in this offense, Singletary became a bell cow for the Texans in the second half. It appears DeMeco Ryans wants Singletary back badly. It will probably be another one year deal.
Odds of return: 80 percent

Steven Nelson, CB, Age 31
Nelson made a big stink in training camp, wanting more money or a new contract. The Texans threw some incentive money his way. Now, Nelson hits free agency after his best season as a pro. Age might keep his market depressed, though, which increases his chances of returning to Houston.
Odds of return: 45 percent

Sheldon Rankins, DT, Age 29
Rankins came here on a one year deal for nearly $10 million last season, and played pretty well, when he was available. Rankins was a solid leader in the defensive line room. The big variable in Rankins returning will be whether or not the Texans choose to splurge on a star player on the defensive interior, like Miami’s Christian Wilkins.
Odds of return: 25 percent

Cameron Johnston, P, Age 32
Just like Fairbairn, Johnston has been one of the best specialists in the league, routinely swinging field position for the Texans. Johnson missed the first month of the season with an injury, and his absence was GREATLY felt.
Odds of return: 60 percent

Blake Cashman, LB, Age 27
Cashman came here as a special teams ace in 2022, but developed into one of the better linebackers in football in 2023. For a big chunk of the first half of the season, you could argue Cashman was the Texans’ best defensive player. He might get priced out of the Texans’ budget for the linebacker position.
Odds of return: 33 percent