Breaking: $1100 Million Crossroads Might Push Down Toronto Blue Jays To Deal Stars At….

As the Toronto Blue Jays courted then-free-agent Shohei Ohtani this past offseason, the competitive upside of their roster was a central tenet of their pitch, according to the Toronto Sun. The presentation from Blue Jays management and ownership would have highlighted young superstars Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, as well as members of a pitching staff that was among MLB’s most effective in 2023, including starter Yusei Kikuchi, who played with Ohtani at Hanamaki Higashi High School in Japan’s Iwate Prefecture.

But the pitch fell short of convincing Ohtani to go north. Despite rampant speculation that included the world’s most-tracked flight, the two-way superstar opted for a $700 million deal from the Los Angeles Dodgers, leaving the Blue Jays to forge ahead without him.

The rest of their offseason was quiet in comparison. Per Scott Mitchell of TSN, the team saw third baseman Matt Chapman reject a six-year, $120 million deal in favor of a short-term one with the San Francisco Giants and opted not to make a qualifying offer. They also failed to entice outfielder Cody Bellinger, who rejoined the Chicago Cubs. Perhaps their most notable addition was veteran slugger Justin Turner, who received a one-year, $13 million contract.

Without more impactful star signings, the Blue Jays’ apparently did not do enough to push the team into contention, at least in the first part of the season. They sit in last place in the competitive American League East division, with the core stars meant to entice Ohtani failing to live up to their own expectations.

As a result, the Blue Jays now face a surprising crossroads, on the hook for the largest payroll allocations in franchise history at nearly $230 million for 2024, but with just over $130 million on the books for 2025 and free agency looming for many of their highest-paid players. If they opt to move on from their pending free agents and make no more expensive commitments, they could shed as much as $100 million between seasons and take a new path — a strategy that would be heavily bolstered by prospective trade returns for star players like Bichette and Guerrero Jr.

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As unlikely as it may have seemed while the team was vying for Ohtani just five months ago, the Blue Jays could now opt to trade away Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Kikcuchi, Turner or virtually any other key members of the roster before this season’s trade deadline.

Young Superstars And Unrealized Potential
In many ways, Guerrero Jr. embodies the conundrum that the Blue Jays now find themselves in. He’s a homegrown talent who first signed with the team as a 16-year-old in 2015. Since 2022, he has signed a series of single-year arbitration deals, netting about $42 million. Now, he’s set to hit unrestricted free agency after next season and there’s reason to believe the Blue Jays won’t want to offer him the kind of long-term, $250 million extension that’s been projected.

In the first 36 games of this season, Guerrero Jr. is seeing the worst averages of his career, with a .234/.335/.365 slash line. Writing for Sportsnet, Arden Zwelling recently noted that Guerrero Jr. has been slugging well below his expected percentage of .455 based on the kind of contact he makes, one of the largest negative differences among MLB hitters.

“I wish I had the magic answer,” manager John Schneider said of this discrepancy, per Zwelling. “Hit at-bats, really all year, have been pretty damn solid.”

That dichotomy between what seems promised by Guerrero Jr.’s stature (not to mention his three-consecutive All-Star nods) and the results so far this year speaks to the challenging decision in front of the Blue Jays front office.

Like Guerrero Jr., Bichette is the son of a former MLB player who has been part of the Blue Jays organization since he was a teenager. He was drafted by the team in the second round in 2016 and signed a series of short-term contracts with the team until 2023, when he received a three-year, $33.6 million extension. He’s now set to earn $17.5 million in 2025 before hitting free agency and, like Guerrero Jr., he has been struggling at the plate.

In 33 games so far, he has slashed .189/.246/.268, a far cry from the career .293/.335/.475 line that has earned him MVP votes in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Though there is no real urgency to extend him this season, Bichette has been projected for an eight-year, $200 million deal and if the team’s poor start pushes the Blue Jays to trade a piece like Guerrero Jr., Bichette might be on his way out as well, bound as the two have been up to this point in their careers.

The strongest possibility still seems to be that the Blue Jays will hang onto Guerrero Jr. and Bichette, even if they continue to struggle, as they retain team control through next season. But, as Jim Bowden noted for The Athletic, if the front office does not believe they will retain either player for the long term, trading them this season would yield a much better return.

“Guerrero will be a free agent after the 2025 season and the Blue Jays have yet to sign him to a long-term deal,” Bowden noted. “They’d get a much better return in a trade now than they would in the offseason or in the leadup to next year’s trade deadline; therefore, they need to seriously consider dealing him this July if they fall out of the race.”

Peripheral Trade Chips
As Guerrero Jr. and Bichette struggle to start the most consequential season in their Blue Jays tenure, the team has a slew of complementary players who are surging in contract years, complicating the front office decisions even more.

If they keep performing at their current levels, Kikuchi and Turner would entice nearly any playoff contender come July. The pitcher has a 2.72 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 39.2 innings in the final season of a $36 million contract, while the veteran slugger has enjoyed a .282/.357/.464 resurgence to open his 16th MLB season.

Outfielder Kevin Kiermaier and catcher Danny Jansen are set to hit free agency at the end of this season as well. Notable pitchers Chris Bassit and Jordan Romano, along with Guerrero Jr. and Bichette, are set to become free agents after 2025.

A Fork In The Road
Fewer than 40 games into the season, it’s too early to say whether the Blue Jays will opt to blow up their roster, or even if they are truly out of playoff contention (though FanGraphs gives them just a 23.2% chance of making the postseason at the time of this writing). It’s still possible the front office will opt to add players that might complement Guerrero Jr., Bichette, Kikuchi, Turner or other members of their current core this season. Or they may opt for a final run with Guerrero Jr. and Bichette under their final year of team control next season, believing that they have a chance to advance past the first round of the postseason for the first time since 2016.

But it’s worth noting that the team that seemed so close to surging toward the World Series after adding a generational talent in Ohtani just five months ago now has a much different outlook heading into the subsequent roster-building portion of the year.

With the promise of its core less certain than ever and as much as $100 million coming off the books for next season, the Blue Jays can pick any number of paths ahead.