È possibile che Jannik Sinner vinca ora il Roland Garros….

While the Italian’s status for this tournament is really concerned, supporting him before he might pull out is a low-risk, high-reward move.

Last week, it was uncertain whether or not Jannik Sinner, the 2024 Australian Open champion, would be competing in Roland Garros. The 22-year-old is dealing with a hip injury that forced him to withdraw from the Rome Masters—which must have been brutal for the Italian. On top of that, reports emerged that Sinner would need to rest his hip in order to prevent the issue from becoming “chronic.” But multiple social media posts have since featured Sinner practicing on clay, and Sinner’s coach, Darren Cahill, was already in Paris. With that in mind, it definitely seems like the world No. 2—and possibly soon-to-be No. 1—is looking to compete.

Considering the positive momentum towards Sinner playing, I’d strongly suggest taking him to win at +500 odds right now. (Odds as of Friday morning on DraftKings Sportsbook.) Sinner was in the +325 range before the hip news got out, so this is a much better price than you could have gotten weeks ago, because of the uncertainty. And depending on where you bet, you really shouldn’t be.

Most major sportsbooks will refund you if Sinner ends up backing out before the tournament starts. (Make sure you check your website’s rules.) But Sinner suddenly looks like a relatively low-risk, high-reward wager. Either he’ll drop out and you’ll get a refund, or you’ll get a tremendous price on perhaps the best player in the world. And if he is confirmed as playing, his odds will drop down immediately. That’s why there’s a little urgency with this.

I should also note that I thought Sinner was being a little short-changed in the market before the injury. Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic were the two favorites to win at Roland Garros, and Sinner was a distant third. But the Italian has been the best player in tennis this year, and it hasn’t been close.

This season, Sinner is a ridiculous 28-3 across all competitions. The Italian is also first in the world in hold percentage and third in break percentage this season—he’s just dynamite in two of the most important aspects of the game. On top of that, Sinner backs it up with elite baseline play. He arguably possesses more power than anybody in the world from the forehand and backhand wings. He has also added some variety in the last year, working in more drop shots and net approaches than ever before. There really aren’t any holes in his game right now, outside of some questionable physical conditioning. But Sinner kind of put those criticisms to bed in Melbourne. Now, as far as I’m concerned, he’s the player to beat at every tournament he plays—at least until we see some more consistency out of Alcaraz.

I also wouldn’t make much of Sinner’s relative lack of success on clay. The Italian beat Alcaraz in a clay-court final in Umag in 2022, and that was back when people thought Sinner’s best surface might actually be the dirt. Well, Sinner has only improved since then, and he has the all-court game required to win a tournament like this. In fact, TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations have Sinner at No. 1 in the world when it comes to Performance Rating on clay in 2024. They also gave him a higher Shot Quality on the forehand and backhand sides than anybody else in the world.

Perhaps Sinner will back out later this week and this will all end up looking pretty useless. But you know what? As long as you’re getting a refund, who cares? What would be even dumber is passing on Sinner at +500—and then watching him compete like the best player in the field, the second he steps foot on the terre battue.